$FB | Facebook Earnings Analysis

July 30, 2021
Equity Analysis

Today, I'm switching things up and digging into Facebook’s earnings release. After earnings, FB stock dropped 4%.

Results Overview

  • Quarterly sales climbed 56% to $29.1 billion (~4.3% beat)
  • 3.51 billion monthly active people (MAP) on the Facebook family of apps. 2.76 billion are active daily (>78%).
  • Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp continued to benefit from a rise in consumers making purchases from brands directly through its apps.
  • Facebook monthly active users (MAU) grew >7% YoY.
  • Average Revenue per Person (ARPP) is up 37% YoY.

Guidance

  • Facebook says it expects revenue growth to slow in the second half of the year.
  • It previously warned that the impact of Apple’s privacy changes in its iOS operating system could slow the company’s ad-targeting capabilities. The company said there could be more significant impacts in the current quarter as more people update their Apple devices.
  • The company still sees itself in growth mode and wants to expand its revenue streams.

Zuck’s Remarks

  • On creators: “We want our platforms to be the best place for millions of creators to earn a living.” — “We’re going to keep our creator tools free to use through 2023.”
  • On video: “Video now accounts for almost half of all time spent on Facebook.”
  • On commerce: “Our approach is to work our way down the stack and build world-class services at every layer of commerce, starting from discovery at the top of the stack all the way down to payments.”
  • On the metaverse: “We believe this is going to be the successor to the mobile internet.”

Valuation

  • Facebook is trading at a discount to other US Big Tech firms.
  • At $373.28 per share, FB is trading ~15.3x forward EBITDA.
  • Facebook is more than the blue app on your phone and its huge base of daily and monthly active users has helped propel the company to a market cap of >$1 trillion. Under Zuck, FB has been able to optimize ad conversion rates, which has drawn a ton of advertising dollars to the platform. I’m still bullish on Facebook, especially at this valuation.

Matthew Hughes:

Facebook is undeniably slowing, reaching full penetration of people on earth. It’s also notably underperformed Google’s 62% revenue growth and 84% in YouTube revenue growth. There are two ways you can think about Facebook. The first is that it’s very cheap which justifies owning the mature company, plus upside on monetization growth internationally. The second is that it’s going to keep seeing growth decelerate because it doesn’t own a platform like Apple, Google, or Microsoft do. I am not afraid of holding this one right now, but longer-term I’m wondering if I should swap it out for another compounder.

Matthew Hughes

My name is Matthew Hughes, and I am a MSc Strategic Fashion Business Management student in London, as a member of the Fashion Business School, which provides key management attributes and business analysis skills to students.

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